Enlisting Change: The Labor Market Consequences of Military Conscription
[ Draft | Short version | Online appendix ]
Abstract: I provide new evidence on the labor market impacts of military conscription using employer-employee administrative data covering the universe of men born between 1958 and 1975 in Argentina. For identification, I exploit the random assignment of draft eligibility generated by 18 draft lotteries. I find that draft eligibility depresses early-career outcomes: At ages 20-24, eligible men exhibit lower employment and earnings. These penalties fade with age and do not accumulate into sizable long-run losses. Eligibility to conscription increases the likelihood of holding formal employment and a permanent contract, with no average effect on medium- or long-run earnings. The enduring consequence of conscription is a modest reallocation of employment away from agricultural activities and toward service-oriented and higher-paying sectors, reducing employment in the lowest-wage activities among the most geographically disadvantaged individuals. Overall, these results indicate that conscription can affect industry sorting rather than merely disrupt labor market entry in early adulthood, but the magnitudes are modest and do not translate into measurable gains in earnings.
JUE insight: The unintended effect of Argentina's subsidized homeownership lottery program on intimate partner violence
with Martin A. Rossi, Journal of Urban Economics (2024).
[ Paper | Draft | Replication package ]
Abstract: We study a natural experiment in Argentina, where low-income women were selected through a lottery system to receive a house and a heavily subsidized long-term mortgage. We exploit the random assignment to estimate the causal link between subsidized homeownership programs and intimate partner violence (IPV). Our analysis utilizes administrative records of the population of women applicants to assess the impact of homeownership on IPV, differentiating between women under joint-ownership contracts with their partners and those under single-ownership contracts. We find that the program causes an increase in IPV for women under joint-ownership contracts and a decrease in IPV for women under single-ownership contracts. Our results highlight the importance of considering the design of subsidized homeownership programs and explicitly incorporating measures to facilitate exit from conflicting relationships.
Transparency and trust in government: Evidence from a survey experiment
with Martin Alessandro, Carlos Scartascini, Jorge Streb, and Jerónimo Torrealday, World Development (2021).
[ Paper | IDB Research Insight ]
Abstract: Does providing information improve citizens’ perception of government transparency? Does all information matter the same for shaping perceptions about the government? This article addresses these questions in the context of an online randomized survey experiment conducted in Argentina. Results show that providing information to citizens matters in shaping perceptions about transparency, and the content of that information matters in affecting the evaluation people make about the government. Those who received a treatment showing that the government was over-performing on its promises had higher trust in the government than those who received a treatment showing that the government was under-performing. The evidence highlights that the relationship between transparency and trust may be mediated by the performance of the government. Our complementary analytical discussion shows that the rules for disclosing information may be important for transparency to matter.
Abstract: We provide experimental evidence on the effect of peer pressure on individual behavior. Specifically, we study the effect of being exposed to an observer in a public restroom on handwashing and urinal flushing behavior. Our estimates show that being exposed to an observer increases the probability of handwashing by 13 percentage points and the probability of urinal flushing by 15 percentage points. Given that handwashing and urinal flushing have social benefits that exceed individual benefits, our findings provide support for peer pressure as an additional way of addressing the social suboptimality arising from externalities.
High Wage Collective Bargaining Units: The Effect of Unions on Firm Pay
with Santiago Hermo and Andres Mena.
[ Slides available upon request ]
Abstract: We study how collective bargaining agreements (CBAs) affect workplace heterogeneity in pay. Using matched employer-employee administrative data from Argentina, we link workers and firms to the collective bargaining unit (CBU) that governs their employment contracts. We extend the canonical Abowd-Kramarz-Margolis (AKM) model to include firm-CBU effects, capturing the joint influence of firm and union wage-setting. Incorporating these effects increases the share of log wage variance explained by the workplace by about 20 percent. Using a newly constructed sample of firms that change CBUs—typically due to representation disputes—we implement an event-study design to estimate causal effects of collective bargaining on firm pay. We find that CBUs causally explain between 13 and 19 percent of the variation in firm pay, implying that unions account for roughly 7 percent of total wage inequality. Our results highlight a novel channel through which collective bargaining contributes to earnings dispersion: by amplifying heterogeneity across firms rather than merely compressing wages within them.
Radio for Progress: Lessons from a Large-Scale Media Education Program in Colombia
with María Medellín Esguerra.
[ Draft available upon request ]
Abstract: We evaluate the long-term educational effects of Radio Sutatenza, a large-scale Catholic media initiative in rural Colombia (1947–1994) designed to reduce adult illiteracy through radio schools. Using newly digitized archival data, we document that program participants were were largely school-aged children rather than adults. We use a cohort difference-in-differences specification to evaluate the effect of RS on education. While we find small improvements in adult literacy, we identify substantial unintended spillovers: children exposed to the program in early life were 13% more likely to complete primary school. Our results highlight the potential of mass media to influence human capital accumulation indirectly through cultural and intergenerational channels, even when pedagogical effectiveness is limited.